Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Economics: Generalists in Gladwell's World

TORONTO, ONTARIO - I happened to catch a repeat of an interview with the author Malcolm Gladwell recently, talking about his book "Outliers". Amongst a variety of interesting theses in this book is the idea that about 10,000 hours of work is required for greatness in essentially any topic. Bill Gates may be an exceptional human being, but he spent 10,000 hours programming before Microsoft became a success. Michael Jordan may have been an extraordinary athlete, but he didn't win a NBA title until he had played basketball for 10,000 hours. As Gladwell has it, even Paul Harvey probably wasn't a great broadcaster until he had been on the air for 10,000 hours.

The 10,000 hours figure seems to ring true in academic circles. It amounts to something less than five years of full-time work, which is just about the time that is generally required to earn a PhD, the standard marker for becoming an expert in a field. Yet, not everyone with a PhD would claim greatness--the 10,000 hours seems to be a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for greatness.

At some level, that's comforting for those of us that really don't want to spend 10,000 hours on anything. Some of us know it would be downright unhealthy for us--focusing on the details of something for 10,000 hours could lead to serious mental issues that would at best be difficult to get beyond. If there's no guarantee of such a commitment leading to greatness anyway, then we have our excuse for not devoting such an extended effort on any one thing. The "generalist" might be the exact person who can't achieve greatness anyway.

So that leads to the age-old question--if only a small number have both the talent and the 10,000 hours to devote to becoming great, what becomes of the rest of us? That seems to be a function of the overall society. In a country with relatively even income distribution, then one might be within in a middle class and living an acceptable life. In a country with larger income inequality, then the non-great are more likely to end up poor no matter what they do, and might not have such a great existence.

Such a conclusion seems to mesh with Gladwell's perspective. In part of the rest of "Outliers," he points out ways in which chance and opportunity have more to do with creating the great amongst us than raw talent--things like sports players statistically being more likely to be born in certain times of the year, and people being the right age during transformations in the economy. This kind of argument tends to lend more sympathy to those of us that do not achieve greatness for whatever reason. Maybe we could have been contenders if we had just been born at a different time--and maybe those that do become great have a certain responsibility to the society that gave them the opportunities that they seized. What starts as a conservative argument about hard work morphs into a pretty liberal perspective.

In this era of pragmatic figures like Barack Obama, such perspectives with elements of conservatism and liberalism like Gladwell's may gain more traction. The truth often lies at the intersection of competing beliefs.

As for blogging, I guess I still have about 9,800 hours to go to achieve greatness, and I might get there in a quarter-century. Somehow I'm not expecting that to happen.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Transport: So That's a SBU


Don't call it a FRED! A SBU sat on the coupler of the last car of Canadian Pacific train #240 as it crossed the Humber River in Toronto, Ontario on 25-February-2009

TORONTO, ONTARIO - Every child knows what should be at the end of a train--a caboose. Unfortunately, since the crew size on most mainline trains was reduced to two people in the 1980's, that hasn't been the case. With the engineer and the conductor in the locomotive, there was no need for the caboose, and it was replaced by a device to monitor the air brake pressure at the end of the train.

For most of my life, I've thought this device was properly called a FRED, or Flashing Rear End Device. (Some railroaders claimed the "F" stood for something else easily guessed with a colorful imagination but not printable here.) It served a number of purposes, a marker at the end of the train so that it would be visible to following trains, a monitor of air brake pressure at the end of the train transmitted by radio to the locomotive so the crew knew whether their train was intact, and in some cases it was capable of setting the brakes from the end of the train when requested by the crew in an emergency.

Up in the locomotive, there had to be a device to receive the signal from the FRED, and these receivers came to be called "Mary"s. Mary didn't seem to stand for anything; someone just thought it would be amusing and the name seemed to stick. When trains departed major terminals, the crew would often be asked for their "FRED and Mary numbers" to keep track of the devices. Apparently in some regions, Wilma was used instead of Mary in a nod to the Flintstones, but I have personally never heard that term used.

FRED and Mary were rarely used as official names. The FRED was sometimes called a EOTD, or End Of Train Device, with the "D" later dropped. On Burlington Northern "wheel" reports for trains in the early 1990's, the FRED came to be labeled as the REEOT (Rear End End of Train device) and the Mary came to labeled as the HEEOT (Head End End of Train device). Having an "End of Train" device at "Head End" of the train apparently didn't strike the railroad as being the least bit ironic, but the terminology had clearly become messy. In time, the HEEOT became a HOT, or "Head Of Train" device, which is perhaps a bit better.

Since moving to Canda, I have heard Canadian Pacific crews and Rail Traffic Controllers refer to a "SBU". It seemed like they were talking about a FRED, and this prompted a bit of research. It turns out that the Association of American Railroads, of which virtually every railroad in the United States and Canada is a member, adopted in 1999 a new terminology for these devices based on the terminology that originated here in Canada. The device on the rear of the train is now called a SBU, or Sense and Brake Unit (though there are two different device codes based on whether it can apply the brakes). The name at the head of the train varies based on function. If it just displays information, then it is a Receiver Display Unit (RDU). If it can control the brakes at the rear as well, then it is a Communications Display Unit (CDU). Sometimes the are two devices, the Communications and Logic Unit (CLU) to receive the information, and the Information and Display Unit (IDU) to display it. The whole thing seemed very Canadian to me, quite accurately describing the equipment, but with names that are almost completely non-memorable.

Thus, it's not surprising that in most places in the US, one still hears about "FRED and Mary numbers," not SBU and RDU numbers. But, the next time you see a train, if you want to follow AAR practice, remember that not only is there not a caboose on the end of a train, there isn't really a FRED either. It's a SBU.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Photos: Model Railroad Club of Toronto


A pair of RS-1 diesels headed for the roundhouse in East Davidson, Ontario past a typical industry on the O-Scale layout of the Model Railroad Club of Ontario on 22-February-2009

TORONTO, ONTARIO - This week, the update to my photo site returns to contemporary material with a visit to the Model Railroad Club of Toronto.

The club was founded in 1938 and has been in the same building in the Liberty Village neighbourhood since 1946. Their 7000-square foot O-scale layout of the fictional Ontario Central opens only one month a year for public shows, so it was a treat to tour the railroad on 22-February-2009.

Margin Notes: Soot, Messing with Joe, Digital TV


Canadian Pacific trains #240 and #159 met above the Humber River in Toronto, Ontario on 25-February-2009

TORONTO, ONTARIO - Most weeks, it seems I complain about the weather each Sunday, but the above picture shows why the winter is so enjoyable in Canada--the white covering adds quite a bit to a picture of a meet between two Canadian Pacific trains at the Humber River in this neighborhood. It won't look nearly as attractive once the snow disappears until the spring growth starts to occur.

* * * * * *

Spring may start sooner according to some researchers. Recent research by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies appears to be backing up claims first publicized in 2003 that soot accelerates global warming. By making the snow less white, the soot causes the ground to reflect less energy and absorb more, thus accelerating global warming by what the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics recently reported may amount to snow packs in the mountains of the western United States melting a full month earlier than it would otherwise!

* * * * * *

While a spring melt one month earlier than usual might sound like a good idea right now, many of us are far more interested in the economy improving one month earlier than it otherwise would. In a major speech last week, US President Barack Obama announced that Vice President Joe Biden will be placed in charge of making certain that stimulus spending would occur as intended, "because nobody messes with Joe." I thought Joe Croce sang to us in 1972 that You Don't Mess Around With Jim, not Joe.

* * * * * *

I had occasion to listen to news about Obama and the rest of the world on the analog television channel signal of CBC Television (VHF channel #5 in the Toronto area) this week, and the thought occurred to me that there are already places in the US where listening to analog television is no longer possible. Analog television will disappear everywhere in the United States on 12-June-2009. Our time will come in Canada, though. The CRTC has currently scheduled the end of analog television to be 31-August-2011 here. Maybe by then I'll have a smart phone that will be able to pick up the live Internet feed of CBC Newsworld.

* * * * * *

This blog made available new material on the Internet every day during the month of February (radio picks on Saturday and photos on Sunday don't count toward that feat, so the post total is padded to 36 instead of 28). Now that I've proven I can do that, expect a few random days to be missed in the coming weeks as I worry more about quality than quantity.

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Radio Pick: Bad Bank on TAL

TORONTO, ONTARIO - This week's radio pick comes from Chicago Public Radio's This American Life.

The economic crisis gripping the United States has been described as "so complicated
that anyone that claims to know how to fix it is lying." That doesn't mean that people shouldn't try to understand the complexity, and there have been remarkably few tools available to assist such attempts. NPR's Planet Money team continues to provide remarkable insights into
the realities of the situation, presenting them on a variety of public radio programming but in full form in this week's 59-minute episode of This American Life. Why isn't anyone else doing this kind of understandable reporting?

Listen to streaming MP3 of This American Life "Bad Bank"

* * * * * *

This week, I have an honorable mention to offer. CBC's Terry O'Reilly and the Age of Persuasion continues to offer considerable insight into the history of advertising and marketing, and this week offered an excellent 27-minute show on how advertisers have commandeered holidays--a fitting reminder as St. Patrick's Day and Easter approach. Follow the links on the CBC page to listen.

Media: Paul Harvey, Good Life!

TORONTO, ONTARIO - For decades, virtually anywhere in the United States, at high noon it was possible to tune one's radio dial and find Paul Harvey's "News and Comment" on the ABC Radio Network. Harvey, a legend who worked in broadcasting for more than 75 years, died today at the age of 90.

Harvey's longevity in broadcasting was unprecedented. Entering the field at age 15, the first "Paul Harvey News and Comment" was broadcast on ABC on 1-April-1951, beginning a run that would last more than a half-century until his recent last commentary. Multiple generations of families grew up listening to Paul Harvey; my parents have childhood memories of him just as strong as my own of hearing him on KOMO and KONA-AM.

While he probably came to be better known for his "Rest of the Story" features on a single topic, my personal favorite was always the noon edition of "News and Comment," a fifteen minute summary of the news of the day opening with "Hello Americans, this is Paul Harvey. Stand by for News!" Along the way, commercial messages would be introduced by "Page Two" through "Page Five" but would often be voiced by Harvey himself, a practice which was often controversial for its potential blurring of news and advertising.

Like any famous broadcaster, Harvey was often parodied. His distinctive style making creative use of pauses and tone changes and well as a full slate of mannerisms ("US--U.S.", "who would want you to know his name" while not giving it, and more) provided ample material. During the O.J. Simpson trial, Harry Shearer did an imagined phone call of Harvey calling Simpson during the slow speed chase, ending with (what else), "O.J.--Good day!" My all-time favorite was heard on KGO in San Francisco by Brian Copeland and Chicago C. Barkley in which "an attempt at reaching out to minority audiences" resulted in "P. Diddy Harvey," who offered "word up for news!" and reported on the "the movie you sneaked into most often last weekend."

It was on KGO that I first heard Harvey referred to as an "ultra-conservative commentator," which I felt said more about the person making that description than about the ABC legend. Harvey was conservative, but more in the sense of being quaint and not in an aggressive sort of way. His conservatism came through in features like "this is not one world," with which my disagreements have already been documented on this blog, but also in much gentler ways like a day when he spent several minutes describing how rap star André 3000 of OutKast insisted on bathing every day.

Harvey ended each "News and Comment" broadcast with a story those in the business call a "kicker"--an amusing story worth waiting for the end of a broadcast to hear. I often stole Harvey's kickers to close my own news compilations, citing him as a source. There was a certain appropriateness to this as Harvey himself relied on a network of mostly midwestern colleagues and friends to help him find such stories. A Google search for "Paul Harvey and Ron Dettinger" returns as one of its top results one of my News Beyond the Farm reports from 1995, closing with a Dettinger story.

Of course, after the kicker Paul Harvey always ended with the same words, in his distinctive cadence--"Paul Harvey, good DAY!" Perhaps now, the most appropriate close is to say, "To Paul Harvey, good AFTERLIFE!"

Friday, February 27, 2009

Music: BNL as a Spiritual Band


BNL performed at the CBC's Sounds of the Season fundraiser in Toronto, Ontario on 5-December-2008

TORONTO, ONTARIO - On Wednesday, BNL founders Ed Robertson and Steven Page announced that lead singer Page would be leaving the band to pursue a solo career and perhaps acting, and the band would continue without him. In light of the rough year that the band has had, the news could not be called a complete surprise, but the announcement still was widely reported throughout Canada. The band, known for its playful lyrics and performances, remains clearly beloved in its native land.

Like many North Americans, I was first introduced to BNL in 1997 as their hit "The Old Apartment" rose in the charts. Their songs have made a significant contribution to my life, with two songs ("Pinch Me" and "It's All Been Done") in my my lifetime top 25, a feat matched only by Billy Joel.

What drew me so strongly to the band was not their playfulness, though, but the fact that many of their lyrics seem to be straight out of the "spiritual world", which is rare in popular music. As discussed here before, the "spiritual world" is one of four identified worlds in the Meridian Flexibility System, focused on energy, harmony with the world, prone to suffering, and with a "timeless" perspective (as opposed to future, past, or present-focused). The vast majority of popular music comes from the "emotional" world, though I have highlighted at least one artist from the "physical" world.

Perhaps the most obvious example comes from the song "It's All Been Done". The very title implies that life is just repeating itself. The group sings:
I knew you before the west was won
And I heard you say the past
was much more fun
You go your way, I go mine
But I'll see you next time
and
Alone and bored on a thirtieth-century night
Will I see you on The Price Is Right?
Could lyrics possibly be more "timeless"?

Yet, just about every BNL song has at least one "spiritual" element. "If I Had A 1,000,000 Dollars" has this line:
If I had a 1,000,000
We wouldn't have to eat Kraft dinner
(But we would!)
Most types would give up macaroni and cheese (that's Kraft dinner if you're not Canadian) given a chance; only those with a suffering element of the "spiritual" would continue to delight in it.

Even the hit "One Week" which on the surface seems like a present-focused "physical" number has a spiritual line:
Five days since I laughed at you and said
"You just did just what I thought you were gonna do"
Is that not be straight out of the "pericardium" (a "spiritual" type) playbook of wisdom and laughing at self-destructive behavior?

There also seems to be a real theme of having a "physical"-type partner to deal with, the expected partner of a "spiritual" type, running not only through "One Week" but many BNL songs. Take this passage from "Call and Answer":
But I'm warning you, don't ever do
Those crazy, messed up things that you do
If you ever do
I promise you I'll be the first to crucify you
"Crazy, messed up" is a common description of "physicals" by "spirituals"--and judging them is a common "spiritual" practice.

The apparently-bad news at BNL could a boon for those enjoying "spiritual" lyrics. Both BNL and Page could separately now create such songs with such themes; this seemed to happen with Page's previous side venture, The Vanity Project in 2005. I look forward to more lyrics like this low-energy gem from "Pinch Me":
I could leave but I'll just stay
All my stuff's here anyway.