Politics: The Only Way Out is a Resignation

TORONTO, ONTARIO - In a matter of hours, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will address the nation about the ongoing political crisis in the country. While I don't expect for a minute that he will do so, probably the only way out of the crisis is for Harper to announce his resignation in favor of a new, Conservative Prime Minister.

Let's review for a moment the past few months in Canadian politics. Prime Minister Harper, for whatever reason, decided to call an election in September. Six weeks later, a new government was elected that looked quite similar to the old one--a Conservative minority. Sure, the Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois gained a few seats and the Liberals lost some, but in essence the Canadian people (if they can be said to have collectively done anything at all) elected a minority government. Implicit in a minority government in the parliamentary system is that the parties work together to govern the country.

For whatever reason, the Conservative government chose not to work with the other parties and instead included items in the Financial Update (notably, not the Throne Speech) that threatened the basic principles and the very existence of all the opposition parties. In response, the opposition parties have now signed an agreement to defeat the government (which they collectively have the votes to do) and install a Liberal-NDP coalition government headed by outgoing Liberal leader Stéphane Dion until May, when the new Liberal leader would take over. The Bloc Quebecois, while not a part of the coalition, has agreed not to defeat it for eighteen months, so that would be the expected lifetime of the government.

Now, the Conservative government is fighting for its existence, and is expected to ask the Governor General to prorogue the parliament until the budget is tabled in January. Prorogation is the ending of a parliamentary session without dissolving parliament, in effect creating a recess and allowing everything to start over when it returns, but it is normally invoked at the end of a session, not the very beginning.

So, there are three alternatives immediately available, all of which involve the Governor General. She may grant the request to prorogue, and the crisis goes on, but might be resolved before parliament returns. If the world financial crisis, demanding government oversight if not action, were not going on, this would clearly be a good alternative.

If there is no prorogation, then next Monday it is likely that the opposition parties will vote down the government, and then the Governor General will have to decide whether an election is called or the opposition is asked to form a government, which they are clearly prepared to do.

Neither one of those alternatives is appealing in the current environment. Having another election just four months after the previous one will not only cost $300 million, but could well lead to the same result again--a minority Conservative government. There is hope for a different result as turnout will likely be higher, but in a time of financial pitfalls, the process of going through elections cannot be good for the stability of the country regardless of its outcome.

Installing the coalition doesn't resolve the problem, either. While certainly a legal government by any standard, the fact that the Liberals and the NDP combined have fewer seats than the Conservatives and that the leader of the coalition would be the one politician who was clearly rejected in the last election means that much of the country will view the coalition as illegitimate. The argument that support of the Bloc Quebecois makes it illegitimate is absurd, especially coming from people that might start their own separatist movement in the west, but that doesn't render the other arguments absurd. The fact the coalition could well last for eighteen months or more, lending stability in that sense, and that it represents cooperation amongst parties, which is what should be happening in a minority parliament, doesn't matter. All of these issues don't matter--all that matters is that the coalition will be viewed as illegitimate, and for that reason, I suspect cannot be accepted by the Governor General.

So, if a new coalition government doesn't solve the problem and an election quite likely would not, that leaves prorogation. I suspect that the Governor General, whose role is ultimately to ensure the function of parliament, may well grant the Prime Minister's request as the best course in a bad situation. But, once prorogation occurs, something else has to happen to end the crisis, or things go right back to where they are now come January.

It seems to me that the only thing that actually resolves the crisis is for Harper to resign and allow a new leader to form a Conservative government. The Canadian people voted for a Conservative-led government, but they voted for a Conservative-led government that would work with the other parties in a minority parliament. Stephen Harper, after the Financial Update, has lost the confidence of the opposition parties and they will not trust him--they have made that abundantly clear. However, if the Conservative party had a new leader, and that leader demonstrated a willingness to work with the opposition parties instead of threatening them, then the crisis can be resolved. The Canadian people would get a functioning government, and it would be the one for which they voted, even if it had a different leader.

Unfortunately, based on past experience, there is little reason to believe that Stephen Harper will resign. One can only hope that prorogation will be granted and that internal pressure on Harper can be escalated as quickly as possible.