Culture: Watch for Rising Violent Crime

TORONTO, ONTARIO - The "TEA" (standing for "Taxed Enough Already?") party movement in the United States is largely seen as having political consequences. It may elect specific candidates (some would say Scott Brown in Massachusetts), it may push the Republican Party to the right (remember the Congressional election in New York's 23rd District?), and it may lead to a radical shift in Congressional makeup this fall. What may be even more relevant to the average person is that it likely portends an increase in violent crime.

Some analysts were quite surprised when the murder rate in the United States did not appreciably rise when the recession took hold. Violent crime rates were thought by some to be mostly correlated to economic status; the more people seemed to have invested in a job and their general economic situation, the less likely they would be to resort to violence. However, that correlation doesn't seem to hold up, including in the recent period when unemployment and insecurity went up, and the murder rate and other violent crime statistics did not.

In researching his recent book, American Homicide, Ohio State professor Randolph Roth found instead that the correlation was with belief in government and trust of fellow citizens. As long as those two elements are in place, poverty and unemployment don't seem to matter, and neither do incarceration rates or tough-on-crime policies. If people trust the people around them and trust their government to act in their best interests, they don't seem to resort to violence.

In a recent CBC interview I've mentioned before, Roth pointed out that the effect might explain why the United States is so much more violent than its northern neighbour, with more than double the murder rate. Canadians generally trust their government--and their fellow Canadians--while those south of the border do not.

So, when Barack Obama was being viewed positively and talked about entering a post-racial era, the unemployment rate and other economic indicators didn't matter so much, the murder rate still went down. Now that the "TEA" Party is raising ire at government, we can expect it will go back up again.

What I find interesting is that Roth has gotten so little media attention for research that is intellectually interesting, correlated with other researchers in Europe, and potentially has a clear lesson to learn. Why not? Because the media makes money from people getting mad at government. It's good business to keep things the way they are--and that may be the most disturbing thing about Roth's findings.

Margin Notes: Snow, Speed, Security

Mount Ben Lomond loomed in the distance as seen from Salt Lake City International Airport, Utah on 7-January-2010

TEMPE, ARIZONA - Once more, I headed south to find south only to find snow on this trip. This time, though, it wasn't at my destination, but at the intermediate airport along the way, in this case around Salt Lake City, Utah. Snow in Salt Lake City is not unusual this time of year, but it certainly is pretty when one doesn't have to shovel it or drive on snow-covered roads.

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Those driving on snow-covered roads in Oregon may not be looking at the state's traditional speed limit signs much longer. While venturing into Oregon this trip, I noted a number of US-standard "Speed Limit" signs on the interstate highways, instead of the "Speed" signs with large numbers that have been a hallmark of being in Oregon. Apparently, the transition from the old standard for the state started in 2002, so it will likely be many years before last large-numbered sign disappears from the state highway system, and many more (if ever) before it disappears entirely.

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If we want the murder rate to disappear entirely, then we need to restore faith in government. This is the surprising conclusion reached by several academics, including Randolph Roth of Ohio State University. I've long been an advocate of holding governments accountable and the Al Gore style of "reinventing government" rather than always considering the government an enemy as has been the argument of many conservatives in the United States, but didn't realize it could have live-or-death consequences. Roth discussed his views on CBC Radio One's The Current on Wednesday (see part two).

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I had time to listen to the podcast of that show because I made it through security at the Pasco, Washington airport so quickly. Small airports really are a different world these days. With only one security line, a single person could conceivably hold up the whole process, but with the smaller number of people involved, one's flight is not going to just leave because of a backup in getting to the gate. Furthermore, these small airports can work surprisingly efficiently; my entire 50-seat aircraft--entirely full, as near as I could tell--was boarded in less than ten minutes. I suppose that's the equivalent of boarding a 767 in fifty minutes, but it was still a lot faster than I would have expected. If I could fly out of a Pasco-sized airport every trip, I would.

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In the past generation, the downtown area of Pasco, Washington has transformed into a primarily Mexican business community. The major supermarket in the downtown area is now a Fiesta Foods, a regional chain catering to Hispanics in eastern Washington and Oregon which is one of my favorites. I will never forget walking into the Pasco store for the first time in 2005 and finding an entire row of tortillas. Living in Boston at the the time, where grocery stores had very conservative selections, I thought I was in heaven.

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I've found another aspect of Hispanic influence in the western United States to lead to be heartening on this trip. In Canada, the packaging on everything is in English and French, and I do not know French well enough to understand it. Here, quite a lot of packaging is bilingual, and I have found it very comforting to find I could read the Spanish and verify that it matched the English.