Politics: The Leader Matters

TORONTO, ONTARIO - A recent Angus-Reid survey on the Federal political parties in Canada has gotten relatively little attention. The headline result is hardly surprising--the Conservatives continue to hold a party-preference lead with 35%, with the Liberals trailing at 27%, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 19%. What's interesting, though, is that they also looked at what would happen if the latter two left-of-center parties merged (the New Liberals?)--and the results are not necessarily what one would expect, and very dependent on the leader of that new party.

On the surface, one might think that a Liberal-NDP merger would simply combine their support to create a solid 46% preference, well ahead of the Conservatives even if some modest defections from the combined party from purists took place. That isn't what would happen at all, according to the survey. If current Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff were to head the party, it would only poll at 34%, with the Conservatives up to 40%. That might sound like centrists amongst the Liberals abandoning the new party because of its history with the NDP, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

If current NDP leader Jack Layton led the new party, it would actually be ahead in the polls at 43%, leading the Conservatives at 37%, not that far from the simple combination prediction. Furthermore, the combined party is strong in much of the country in this scenario, including a 10-point lead over the Bloc in Quebec. One could make the case that this is the baseline for Liberal-leaning voters that could not stand the influence of the NDP--marking that group as only something like 2-3% of voters.

So what's going on with the Ignatieff-as-leader numbers? It's not having NDP defections because a Liberal would be leading the combined party. With Liberal Bob Rae as leader of the new party, there's a 38% tie between the new party and the Conservatives. Considering that Bob Rae has significant baggage in Ontario as a result of his time as premier and is hardly a "generic Liberal," this implies that the generic NDP defections would be less than 8% (and one would not expect them, for ideological reasons, to run to the Conservatives).

It pretty much has to come down to individual leadership. Whether because of Conservative advertising or his own actions, Ignatieff is not positively viewed by the electorate, and that clearly matters to voters more than the ideology of the party that he leads. On the other hand, Layton is apparently viewed quite positively (at least by those leaning left). I've long held that political leadership is important, and this poll seems to demonstrate that quite strongly.

While a Liberal-NDP merger or even formal coalition is far from likely at this stage, the Conservatives have to be taking note of this poll. I could imagine that we might start seeing some negative advertising directed at Jack Layton. This would be a dangerous game--Layton has publicly spoke about his ongoing battle with prostate cancer and any negative advertising would be seen as picking on a physically weakened man who is widely expected to only lead his party for one more election.

A far more interesting topic may not be who would lead a combined Liberal-NDP alliance if it formed tomorrow, but who would lead it in the future after Ignatieff, Layton, and the other current players move on. Could it be Liberal Ken Dryden? The NDP's Thomas Mulcair? There will be a search for leadership in Canada, whether for the Liberals and NDP individually or as one, as well as for a new Conservative leader someday. The country will only benefit if competent and effective leaders emerge.

Margin Notes: Santa, Politics, Truth as a Drug

Near the peak of a snow shower, the Zellers Sled Float came down Bloor Street during the Santa Claus Parade in Toronto on 16-November-2008

TORONTO, ONTARIO - There was a certain appropriateness that a reasonably heavy snow shower passed through town during today's Santa Claus Parade, the unofficial start of the holiday season in the Greater Toronto Area. It was certainly preferable to the cold rain that blanketed the GTA yesterday. There will be much more about the Santa Claus Parade and the beginning of the holiday season on this blog tomorrow.

* * * * * *

The other event I attended today was a reception for the volunteers of the losing Peggy Nash campaign in the Toronto riding of Parkdale-High Park. In stark contrast to Sarah Palin and even Michelle Obama, who have gotten publicity for their fashion statements in recent weeks, both Nash and Member of Provincial Parliament Cheri DiNovo spoke about shopping at Value Village during the event. How refreshing is that?

* * * * * *

I claim this blog to be forward-looking, so how about looking ahead to the 2016 congressional campaign? It seems that a Caroline Gleich, no known relation, has mused about running for Congress in Utah, but not until 2016. In the first message of her 2016 congressional campaign, Gleich complains about two hypocritical Republican senators and speaks out against California's Proposition 8--views that certainly match those often seen on this blog. There's good skiing in Canada, Caroline, how about moving up here and running for the leadership of the Liberal Party?

* * * * * *


A large Michael Ignatieff campaign sign was noted on the Kingsway in Toronto on 24-September-2008

Lest that seem like carpet-bagging, recall that this was a major charge leveled at Michael Ignatieff in the 2006 Liberal leadership campaign after he spent 30 years outside of Canada. Now, after winning two elections to federal parliament from the Etobicoke-Lakeshore riding just across the Humber River from this computer and proving a forceful member of the body, Ignatieff believes that people trust him and most pundits believe he is the front-runner. So far, he has only two opponents, Bob Rae, another Toronto Member of Parliament who was the other front-runner with Ignatieff in the last contest, and Dominic LeBlanc, a New Brunswick Member of Parliament. The race earned publicity today when Rae refused to participate in an internal party debate in Toronto since the media was not invited. LeBlanc may have been the winner of this round, telling a group of reporters that both Rae and Ignatieff needed to grow up.

* * * * * *

One thing the Liberals could do to increase their chances of electoral success would be to utilize on-line resources the way the Barack Obama campaign did in the United States. Continuing the use of the Internet, CNET News reported this week that Obama's weekly radio address will also appear on YouTube.

* * * * * *

The internet is used for activism by all kinds of groups, including nudists. Despite growing up in one of its suburbs, I was not aware until this week that Seattle has no law against nudity in public parks. Indecent exposure is banned, but generic nudity is not, and hence the World Naked Bike Ride is presently legal. In an entire hour devoted to the subject on KUOW's The Conversation on Thursday, perhaps the most revealing moment was when an organizer noted that the event takes place in the summer months--"for most of the rest of the year, it's not so pleasant to ride naked."

* * * * * *

Chemical and Engineering News Editor-in-Chief Rudy Baum, who has become controversial for writing against climate change skeptics and the Bush administration for not listening to scientists, spoke out again recently. In a 20-October-2008 editorial, Baum noted that it seemed that the only reason Robert Gallo had not shared this year's Nobel Prize for Medicine was that he is a "brash, extremely self-confident American." Anyone who didn't think Nobel Prizes had become politicized wasn't paying attention when Al Gore shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. Baum calls for criticism of the Nobel Prize Committees--I think this is old news. The prizes come from a fundamentally Swedish point of view, and sometimes that is political. It's their right to operate that way, and I don't see it changing. If you want to win a Nobel Prize, it behooves you to share a world view with the Swedes. If you don't like it, start your own prize.

* * * * * *

Philosophy can come from anywhere, but I was surprised to hear it on CBC Radio One's show on medicine, White Coat, Black Art, this week. Dr. Philip Hebert, author of "Doing Right" told host Dr. Brian Goldman that "truth is to be dispensed like any other drug." Does this mean George W. Bush was avoiding the truth since he might become addicted?