Politics: The Leader Matters

TORONTO, ONTARIO - A recent Angus-Reid survey on the Federal political parties in Canada has gotten relatively little attention. The headline result is hardly surprising--the Conservatives continue to hold a party-preference lead with 35%, with the Liberals trailing at 27%, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 19%. What's interesting, though, is that they also looked at what would happen if the latter two left-of-center parties merged (the New Liberals?)--and the results are not necessarily what one would expect, and very dependent on the leader of that new party.

On the surface, one might think that a Liberal-NDP merger would simply combine their support to create a solid 46% preference, well ahead of the Conservatives even if some modest defections from the combined party from purists took place. That isn't what would happen at all, according to the survey. If current Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff were to head the party, it would only poll at 34%, with the Conservatives up to 40%. That might sound like centrists amongst the Liberals abandoning the new party because of its history with the NDP, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

If current NDP leader Jack Layton led the new party, it would actually be ahead in the polls at 43%, leading the Conservatives at 37%, not that far from the simple combination prediction. Furthermore, the combined party is strong in much of the country in this scenario, including a 10-point lead over the Bloc in Quebec. One could make the case that this is the baseline for Liberal-leaning voters that could not stand the influence of the NDP--marking that group as only something like 2-3% of voters.

So what's going on with the Ignatieff-as-leader numbers? It's not having NDP defections because a Liberal would be leading the combined party. With Liberal Bob Rae as leader of the new party, there's a 38% tie between the new party and the Conservatives. Considering that Bob Rae has significant baggage in Ontario as a result of his time as premier and is hardly a "generic Liberal," this implies that the generic NDP defections would be less than 8% (and one would not expect them, for ideological reasons, to run to the Conservatives).

It pretty much has to come down to individual leadership. Whether because of Conservative advertising or his own actions, Ignatieff is not positively viewed by the electorate, and that clearly matters to voters more than the ideology of the party that he leads. On the other hand, Layton is apparently viewed quite positively (at least by those leaning left). I've long held that political leadership is important, and this poll seems to demonstrate that quite strongly.

While a Liberal-NDP merger or even formal coalition is far from likely at this stage, the Conservatives have to be taking note of this poll. I could imagine that we might start seeing some negative advertising directed at Jack Layton. This would be a dangerous game--Layton has publicly spoke about his ongoing battle with prostate cancer and any negative advertising would be seen as picking on a physically weakened man who is widely expected to only lead his party for one more election.

A far more interesting topic may not be who would lead a combined Liberal-NDP alliance if it formed tomorrow, but who would lead it in the future after Ignatieff, Layton, and the other current players move on. Could it be Liberal Ken Dryden? The NDP's Thomas Mulcair? There will be a search for leadership in Canada, whether for the Liberals and NDP individually or as one, as well as for a new Conservative leader someday. The country will only benefit if competent and effective leaders emerge.

Margin Notes: Ignatieff, GO, KIRO, CBC, Earth

Federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff walked in the Good Friday Procession in Toronto, Ontario on 10-April-2009

TORONTO, ONTARIO - In yesterday's post, I wrote about the distinction between a procession and a parade. One other element of a parade that I wouldn't expect in a procession is a political leader walking and waving to voters. However, the Federal Opposition Leader, Michael Ignatieff, was seen walking in the Good Friday Procession as pictured above. Walking without any significant security team or any identification, I wasn't sure at first that it was the Federal Liberal Leader. Ignatieff does represent a Toronto riding, but it still struck me as surprising and borderline inappropriate to find him marching in the procession.

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Borderline inappropriate is how some are viewing the merger of Metrolinx, the transportation planning agency for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (or whatever we're calling it this week), and GO Transit, the operator of regional transit in this area. Some people I generally trust, such as transit advocate Steve Munro, have been especially critical of the elimination of politicians from the combined agency's board. I have avoided comment on this subject in part because I have nothing to say that can't be read elsewhere, and in part because I'm keeping an open mind until we see the new organization starts taking action--if the new board starts ramming ill-advised public-private partnerships through, I'll be calling for a change, but if they behave responsibly, perhaps this might actually turn out to be a good idea.

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I've also avoided comment on the recent demise of KIRO 710 AM in Seattle, which has morphed into a sports station as ESPN 710, while the traditional KIRO programming is now on 97.3 KIRO-FM. I mainly avoided comment because the last hour of the simulcast, with veteran KIRO broadcaster Dave Ross and reasonably seasoned KIRO broadcaster Dori Monson, was pathetic. Ross seemed reluctant to do the hour at all, Monson seemed to want to focus mostly on his personal experience, and there was quite limited discussion of the history of the station--and almost no old audio. I may have more to say about the old KIRO, but it won't reference the nearly-unlistenable final hour of programming.

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The absence of compelling radio seems to be infecting Canada as well. My weekly radio pick tends to be somewhat distorted in that it highlights an exceptional program and thus sometimes rewards inconsistency as opposed to day-in, day-out quality. However, it's hard to miss that the CBC, which accounted for one-third of my picks in 2006, more than half in 2007, and just under one-third in 2008, had only gotten TWO picks all year before this week. Perennial contributors to the list such as The Current and The Sunday Edition (the #1 and #2 programs in terms of times cited in 2007) haven't appeared at all this year, and last year's #1 program, As It Happens, only appeared as a result of an April Fool's joke. With the additional cuts still coming, this can't bode well for the future of the CBC, no matter that its baseline level of quality still exceeds that of any other single network.

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One thing out of the CBC that I did find compelling recently was an episode of the Comedy Factory podcast pointing out that the recent Earth Hour was taking attention away from Earth Day. The skit speculated that next would come Earth Minute, and finally Earth Second. For those that don't wish to forget Earth Day, it's on April 22nd.

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A new discovery for me this week--the planters at the east end of Bloor West Village were bi-lingual on 10-April-2009!

I believe the planters along Bloor Street near Kennedy Avenue in Toronto were installed on a previous Earth Day, and I finally noticed something about them this week. On one end of the planters, facing west, is engraved the word "BIENVENUE". A little searching revealed that "WELCOME" is also engraved, facing the street to the north. Why wouldn't there be bi-lingual planters in Canada?

Politics: Does Ignatieff Have the Right Image?

TORONTO, ONTARIO - Poll numbers right now in Canada seem to look pretty favorably on Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff. While varying somewhat, the general consensus seems to be captured by what is now a month-old Harris Decima poll: Ignatieff's personal approval ratings are better than for any other party leader, including the Prime Minister, and people have more faith in his judgment than that of any other party leader, including the Prime Minister. Many Conservatives think they should be hitting him harder with personal attack ads the way they went after Stéphane Dion. I'm not so sure that's necessary--Ignatieff may be the embodiment of the exact Liberal stereotypes that will keep the Liberals from enjoying much of a revival.

It wasn't so long ago that the Liberal brand was badly damaged. The arrogance of the idea of it as the "natural ruling party" had seemed to come to life in the sponsorship scandal, and the party had come to be viewed as elitist, out of touch with the average Canadian, and dishonest. Somehow, Paul Martin managed to hold on to a minority government, but then in 2006, it fell out of government in favor of the Conservatives.

So what does Michael Ignatieff look like? Like Dion before him, he's fundamentally an academic--and an academic that spent time at elite places like Harvard University, no less. While far more eloquent, he has a propensity to use impressive vocabulary. He was elected essentially by acclamation within the party, without a real contest. Could he possibly have a more elitist air?

Just look at how he is portrayed on the CBC's satire show This Hour Has 22 Minutes. Gavin Crawford plays Ignatieff as a squinting know-it-all who believes he has a lock on being a future Prime Minister of Canada. In the 3-March-2009 show (see the video), Ignatieff even appears with Crawford in person to tell him to be "more smug." With the history of the Liberal Party, might this not be more damaging than the bumbling image in which Dion was portrayed?

I give Ignatieff significant points not just for that appearance and others on 22 Minutes (including with the Single Female Voter), but a variety of other public appearances that indicate he does have a real sense of humour. Perhaps Ignatieff will prove to be the leader that the polls currently seem to indicate people believe he may be, and the caricature will be nothing more than an amusing side show. Considering the public mood that is not very tolerant of personal attacks, though, if I were a Conservative, I wouldn't be worried about their lack of aggressiveness in attacking Ignatieff. His developing elitist image may be exactly the kind of figure they will want to run against by the time of the next election.

Margin Notes: Fireworks, Leaders, and Batman

Fireworks lit up Toronto's City Hall during the Cavalcade of Lights fireworks on 13-December-2008

TORONTO, ONTARIO - One of the better free events during the holiday season in Toronto is the Cavalcade of Lights concerts in Nathan Phillips Square. At 7 pm on Saturday nights, a free concert takes place on the stage, followed by a short but spectacular fireworks display over Toronto's City Hall and a DJ leading skating on the nearby rink. I attended Dragonette's concert last night, finding it odd that lead singer and Timmons native Martina Sorbara (yes, the daughter of politician Greg) spent a lot of time complaining about the cold when it was only about -2 C, but really enjoying the fireworks display. One more concert remains--Serena Ryder next Saturday--along with one more red-and-green-dominated fireworks display.

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The political fireworks continued in Canada this week; as predicted, Michael Ignatieff became the leader of the Liberal Party as all other candidates stepped aside. The best take on the transition may have come from the CBC's satire team, which came up with the Iggy Leadership Doll presented at the end this week's edition of The House on Radio One--pull its chain and hear vocabulary not heard outside of academia.

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I have someone different in mind for Prime Minister, though. Before the prime-time speeches during the crisis two weeks ago, the group I was with decided to tune in CBC Television, and soon as we saw Stephen Harper on-screen, we'd turn up the volume and start paying attention. Soon, a figure behind a podium appeared on screen, but it wasn't Harper. The CBC now carries the "Jeopardy!" game show at 6:30 pm, and the man behind the podium was host Alex Trebek. That prompted some thinking--Trebek is Canadian, after all. He would probably make a pretty good prime minister. The only problem is that question period would have to be changed into answer period.

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Also thinking back to that night of speeches by Harper and Stéphane Dion, the most amazing thing to me about Dion's speech is something I've yet to hear noted in the media. Despite one of the main criticisms of the proposed coalition being its perceived rejection of western Canada, his only mention of western issues in the speech was a reference to the forest industry in British Columbia--made seemingly as an after-thought to mentions of the automobile industry in Ontario and the resource industry in Quebec. Would it have been that hard to mention British Columbia FIRST in that list instead of last?

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A voice that used to boom over British Columbia at night, as well as its origin in Washington state, was radio talk show host Mike Webb, once of KIRO-AM in Seattle. Webb was murdered in April 2007, but a portion of his influence lives on in the form of 104.7 the Queen. Webb was a fount of knowledge about popular music in the rock-and-roll era, and often drew upon this information in his radio shows to talk about the influence of one popular group on another. The expertise in one mind may be lost, but Webb's record collection containing all that music continues to be played on an Internet stream, interspersed with short, often political and quite humorous liners. The name, the Queen, is a play on both Webb's homosexual orientation and the fact that he lived on Queen Anne Hill in Seattle. If you miss Mike Webb, listening to the Queen is at least a partial antidote.

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In his final years, Webb was beset with legal problems, but one person that wouldn't be expected to have legal problems is Batman. Yet, Batman, or more precisely the maker of Batman movies--Warner Brothers--is facing a lawsuit from the town of Batman, Turkey. According to an article in the Christian Science Monitor, the town is considering suing the filmmaker over the use of the name Batman, never mind that the comic strip started in 1939 and the town was not incorporated until 1955. In the end, this seems to be all about tourism for Batman--too bad Greece doesn't have a town named Catwoman or Joker.

Politics: Only the Liberals are Shaky

TORONTO, ONTARIO - I wanted to substantially avoid Canadian politics for awhile since parliament is prorogued until late January, but there is a point that needs to be made. All this material about the "coalition" falling apart is not precisely correct--what is really falling apart is the Liberal Party itself. Sound familiar?

Like it or not, the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois aren't likely to withdraw from their arrangements with respect to the coalition on their own volition. For the NDP, this is not just a chance to remove the Conservatives and Stephen Harper from power, but a chance to actually do some governing as part of the coalition. After being demonized as separatists (and falsely called part of the coalition) by the Conservatives, the Bloc has no interest in anything that could be construed as helping the Conservatives.

The only party that might pull out of the coalition is the Liberals, and that's what Liberal Member of Parliament Jim Karygiannis really meant when he said yesterday that he "cannot see it holding together" until the end of the year. The antecedent of "it" in his sentence was clearly supposed to be the coalition, but the coalition isn't changing unless the Liberals initiate it.

The problem, just as it was in the last election campaign, is that the Liberal party seems utterly incapable of rallying behind present leader Stéphane Dion. While I have long had difficulty understanding the internal rejection, it is clear that the Dion response to Harper's statement on Wednesday night--which some have dubbed the "Blair Witch Project" speech for its poor production values--didn't help Dion's standing. While the Prime Minister wasn't exactly impressive that night, Dion looked less polished than most high school student body presidents.

Furthermore, if the October election had a clear conclusion, it was that Dion had been rejected by Canadian voters. The Liberals were the only party to lose seats and their percentage of the vote was the lowest in the party's history. If anyone lacks a mandate to govern, it is Stéphane Dion, and that is the main substance of the argument that the coalition would be illegitimate which I happen to agree with. Change the leader of the coalition, especially to Michael Ignatieff, and suddenly a lot of people are much more comfortable about the idea.

When people like Jim Karygiannis say that the coalition will not last through the prorogation, what they are really saying is that Dion will not last as the coalition leader or as Liberal Party leader through the prorogation. It seems extremely likely that Dion will be replaced, and while that might open the door for the coalition to break up, that is not a foregone conclusion.

A Liberal leadership race is already underway, one that was supposed to finish in May. Instead, the Liberals will probably find a way to choose between Ignatieff, Bob Rae, and Dominic LeBlanc as soon as possible. One assumes that LeBlanc, as the least known of the three, is unlikely to come out the winner. Between Rae and Ignatieff, there is a clear calculus. If Rae wins, there is the distinct possibility that more centrist MP's in the Liberal Party may cross the aisle and join the Conservative Party, giving the Conservatives a majority (this may happen anyway, but that's a topic for another day, and it is certainly more likely if Rae, a former NDP member, were to become leader). If Ignatieff were to become the leader, Rae supporters would have nowhere to go. For this reason, I expect Ignatieff to become Liberal Party leader, and thus the leader of the Coalition.

Ignatieff has seemed lukewarm about the coalition, particularly in light of negative poll numbers towards it, so it is possible that he might pull the plug on it, assuming the Conservatives are smart and present a reasonable budget in January (which I used to think was a given, but in light of the past few weeks, I wouldn't put anything past Harper). If the coalition does still exist and votes down the government, there is no way the Governor General will not call an election, considering that Prime Minister Harper will request it and one of the parties has a new leader. If the coalition folds and the Conservative government survives, then the next time the Conservatives overreach like they did in the Fiscal Update, the government will fall then and an election will be called.

The bottom line? I expect Michael Ignatieff will become the leader of the Liberal Party as soon as the party can figure out how to do it. Then, one way or another, there will be another election, and how that one turns out will have mostly to do with how the Conservatives and Stephen Harper behave between now and then.

Margin Notes: Santa, Politics, Truth as a Drug

Near the peak of a snow shower, the Zellers Sled Float came down Bloor Street during the Santa Claus Parade in Toronto on 16-November-2008

TORONTO, ONTARIO - There was a certain appropriateness that a reasonably heavy snow shower passed through town during today's Santa Claus Parade, the unofficial start of the holiday season in the Greater Toronto Area. It was certainly preferable to the cold rain that blanketed the GTA yesterday. There will be much more about the Santa Claus Parade and the beginning of the holiday season on this blog tomorrow.

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The other event I attended today was a reception for the volunteers of the losing Peggy Nash campaign in the Toronto riding of Parkdale-High Park. In stark contrast to Sarah Palin and even Michelle Obama, who have gotten publicity for their fashion statements in recent weeks, both Nash and Member of Provincial Parliament Cheri DiNovo spoke about shopping at Value Village during the event. How refreshing is that?

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I claim this blog to be forward-looking, so how about looking ahead to the 2016 congressional campaign? It seems that a Caroline Gleich, no known relation, has mused about running for Congress in Utah, but not until 2016. In the first message of her 2016 congressional campaign, Gleich complains about two hypocritical Republican senators and speaks out against California's Proposition 8--views that certainly match those often seen on this blog. There's good skiing in Canada, Caroline, how about moving up here and running for the leadership of the Liberal Party?

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A large Michael Ignatieff campaign sign was noted on the Kingsway in Toronto on 24-September-2008

Lest that seem like carpet-bagging, recall that this was a major charge leveled at Michael Ignatieff in the 2006 Liberal leadership campaign after he spent 30 years outside of Canada. Now, after winning two elections to federal parliament from the Etobicoke-Lakeshore riding just across the Humber River from this computer and proving a forceful member of the body, Ignatieff believes that people trust him and most pundits believe he is the front-runner. So far, he has only two opponents, Bob Rae, another Toronto Member of Parliament who was the other front-runner with Ignatieff in the last contest, and Dominic LeBlanc, a New Brunswick Member of Parliament. The race earned publicity today when Rae refused to participate in an internal party debate in Toronto since the media was not invited. LeBlanc may have been the winner of this round, telling a group of reporters that both Rae and Ignatieff needed to grow up.

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One thing the Liberals could do to increase their chances of electoral success would be to utilize on-line resources the way the Barack Obama campaign did in the United States. Continuing the use of the Internet, CNET News reported this week that Obama's weekly radio address will also appear on YouTube.

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The internet is used for activism by all kinds of groups, including nudists. Despite growing up in one of its suburbs, I was not aware until this week that Seattle has no law against nudity in public parks. Indecent exposure is banned, but generic nudity is not, and hence the World Naked Bike Ride is presently legal. In an entire hour devoted to the subject on KUOW's The Conversation on Thursday, perhaps the most revealing moment was when an organizer noted that the event takes place in the summer months--"for most of the rest of the year, it's not so pleasant to ride naked."

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Chemical and Engineering News Editor-in-Chief Rudy Baum, who has become controversial for writing against climate change skeptics and the Bush administration for not listening to scientists, spoke out again recently. In a 20-October-2008 editorial, Baum noted that it seemed that the only reason Robert Gallo had not shared this year's Nobel Prize for Medicine was that he is a "brash, extremely self-confident American." Anyone who didn't think Nobel Prizes had become politicized wasn't paying attention when Al Gore shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. Baum calls for criticism of the Nobel Prize Committees--I think this is old news. The prizes come from a fundamentally Swedish point of view, and sometimes that is political. It's their right to operate that way, and I don't see it changing. If you want to win a Nobel Prize, it behooves you to share a world view with the Swedes. If you don't like it, start your own prize.

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Philosophy can come from anywhere, but I was surprised to hear it on CBC Radio One's show on medicine, White Coat, Black Art, this week. Dr. Philip Hebert, author of "Doing Right" told host Dr. Brian Goldman that "truth is to be dispensed like any other drug." Does this mean George W. Bush was avoiding the truth since he might become addicted?